What If: 911 Down

It’s easily one of the most common debates among those who contemplate emergency preparedness: should one bug-out — moving to a potentially safer location — or bug-in — sheltering in place, because leaving would be even more dangerous. Typically, the answer is always, it depends. This is because conditions and circumstances can differ dramatically between every situation. If being issued evacuation orders before a hurricane, tsunami, or wildfire, it’s the wise choice to move out of harm’s way.

Someone receiving an imminent tornado warning will seek shelter inside, hopefully in or near their own residence. But there are more ambiguous situations, where making the choice to stay or go is less clear. And those hazy situations have been occurring with increased frequency.

Over the past several years, several high-profile cyberattacks have exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure across the globe, affecting municipal systems, cellular networks, and emergency response systems. Moments like these point to man-made problems, but nature is also a culprit. Powerful atmospheric storms and coronal mass ejections can easily disrupt our means of communication for days, if not several weeks.

These incidents underscore the frightening reality that the systems we rely on for our safety can be crippled at the whim with a few keystrokes, or randomly from natural events, leaving us to fend for ourselves.

Imagine waking up one morning to find that 911 no longer works, your phone has no signal, and the electric power we rely on for everything is unreliable or non-existent. Emergencies and crimes still occur at their usual daily pace, all while law enforcement and first responders remain unreachable. This very scenario has played out across numerous states in the United States, affecting millions of people and causing tens of thousands of 911 calls to go unanswered.

What would you do if your ability to call for help vanished overnight? This is not a hypothetical situation, but a very real possibility that many experts warn could occur as cyber warfare and infrastructure sabotage become more common. It forces the question: How prepared are you to protect your family when the systems meant to keep you safe are no longer reliable, and under which circumstances will you decide to move to a safer location or stay hunkered down?

The Scenario

• Situation type

  
  

  A large-scale failure in the 911 system

• Your Crew

  
  

  You, your spouse, your 7-year-old daughter, an elderly Labrador retriever, and a skittish cat

• Location

  
  

  Monroe, North Carolina

• Season

  
  

  Late fall

• Weather

  
  

  Cool, high of 65 degrees F, low of 40 degrees F

The Setup: It started slowly. A few days ago, the news began to report that 911 calls were taking longer to connect. At first, local anchors described it as a “technical glitch,” with no immediate cause for concern. But over the next 48 hours, things spiraled, and the truth became known. As had happened in other areas of the country, the 911 system had been hacked, and it wasn’t just your town — it was a large portion of the entire East Coast. Emergency services, including police, fire, and medical responders, were unreachable. With no backup systems in place and no clear timeline for a fix, people already on edge because of current political tensions began to panic.

In your small town of 35,000, the initial reaction was confusion. Neighbors shared stories of calling 911 and getting nothing but static or dead air. The local police department, already stretched thin, did what it could to maintain order, but without communication, there was no way for them to respond to the increasing number of incidents.

The situation was worse in nearby Charlotte. Riots had erupted in several neighborhoods, as looters took advantage of the chaos. Social media was flooded with reports of businesses being ransacked and vehicles being stolen.

On the third day of the crisis, the power went out. No official word had come through as to why — rumors ranging from another hack on the grid, to a vandalized substation — but the timing couldn’t have been worse. By now, the grocery stores had been picked clean, and gas stations were either shut down or had long lines of desperate people hoping to fill up before supplies ran out.

Even if you wanted to leave town, the roads were a nightmare — every major route was severely affected by vehicle accidents paramedics either couldn’t get to or had no idea existed. There were also rumors of opportunistic looters setting up roadblocks and robbing people who tried to get through. The radio buzzed with unconfirmed reports of mob activity in the nearby city, with law enforcement overwhelmed and first responders unable to intervene.

The Complication: It’s now day five, and things are getting dangerous in your once-quiet town. The temperature has dropped, and without reliable power, your home is starting to feel the bite of the cold at night. You and your spouse try to keep your child entertained, but the lack of communication from authorities has left you both on edge. The situation feels like it could explode at any moment.That night, it does.

Around 10 p.m., you hear the unmistakable sound of breaking glass. You rush to the window and see several figures smashing their way into a house down the street. The home belongs to an elderly couple who you know aren’t prepared for this kind of chaos.

There’s no way to call for help, and the looters — emboldened by the lack of police presence — are acting with impunity. They ransack the house, leaving with armfuls of valuables and supplies. Your spouse asks if you should intervene, but the group looks dangerous, and you know that without backup, any confrontation could end badly.

By morning, word spreads through the neighborhood that the looters have been moving from house to house. One family packed up their car and tried to leave, but they didn’t get far on the congested road, and the situation on the highways is just as chaotic. You check your supplies.

Food from the refrigerator and freezer is mostly gone, having had to eat it before it spoiled after the power went out. You’ve got about three days’ worth of shelf-stable food and water for the family, and two go-bags — preps for a potentially bad hurricane season. However, you haven’t checked the go-bags in over a year. You’re not sure what’s in them, but they’re there if you need to leave quickly. The family dog is starting to show signs of age, struggling to get up and down the stairs, while your daughter’s beloved cat has been hiding under the bed, skittish from the loud noises outside.

The local radio station — one of the few remaining reliable sources of information — warns that things are only going to get worse. Without power and a functional 911 system, law enforcement and first responders can’t be reached, and criminals have become more brazen. There’s talk of forming neighborhood watch groups to defend against break-ins, but you’re not sure how much good that’ll do if things continue to deteriorate. To make matters worse, more people are trying to leave the town, clogging up the already congested roads and leaving fewer places to escape to if you decide to bug-out.

As you sit with your spouse that evening, you discuss your options. Bugging in feels increasingly dangerous — your neighborhood is becoming a target for looters, and without reliable heat, the cold is becoming a serious issue. Bugging out, however, is also risky. The roads are choked with traffic, and reports of armed gangs robbing travelers make the thought of loading your child and pets into the car seem like a gamble with your safety.

The night brings no relief. Around 2 a.m., you hear shouting outside again. This time, it’s closer. Two houses down, a group is trying to break into a neighbor’s garage. You and your spouse exchange a worried look. How much longer can you wait? Your family’s safety is at stake, but leaving might put you all in an even more dangerous situation. You wonder if your neighbors are having the same debate.

Emergency Manager Mark Linderman’s Approach to 911 Down Scenario

I’ll be up front. I’m a “bug-in” kind of guy. The resources I’ve invested in to shelter at home during a disaster give me the peace of mind to relax on my couch with a good book, even if the world is falling apart around us. I know, though, that reality sets in, and as life unfolds, I must keep moving forward with it.

I adopt the approach of the Baby Boomers when preparedness wasn’t “prepping,” it was just a way of life due to the precarious times they themselves lived in during the early stages of the Cold War. Times are different, but the need for me to prepare my family for an emergency isn’t. Knowing that makes this scenario one that hits at the heart of why I prepare for the unthinkable and exemplifies why others should too.

Preparation

A handful of years ago, I woke up to find that our community had neither cell phone service nor internet capability. While I wasn’t overly anxious about the North Koreans hacking into our system, it was bizarre to feel “disconnected” from the world. Communications were restored an hour later, and all was good in my little neighborhood.

However, it left me feeling vulnerable to the nefarious whims of both nature and those seeking to do our nation harm. I believe that investing in radio systems would be a great advantage in scenarios like this, with the understanding that radios wouldn’t work for long distances and communication relationships should be established with those we trust long before calamity strikes.

Because we live in such a polarized nation, I’ve given the concept of “going gray,” or the ability to fit in and not stand out in society, more credence than I had in my earlier years. Thankfully, we live in a small community where residents share common ideals and political affiliations. Small communities, though, are often surrounded with small bubbles. In a larger community, such as the one in this scenario, you’re faced with more opinions, more extremism on both sides, and unfortunately, more adverse engagement.

One thing that I’ve realized in life is that people are people, and most members of society will resort to their reptilian natures when it comes to their own survival. This undoubtably leads to community members who may be more volatile, especially with the added angst from an unresponsive emergency response system. That said, I believe that living in an amicable state with my neighbors wouldn’t be a necessary struggle to take upon myself, especially if continuing to adopt the “gray man” philosophy.

We have a seasonal farmer’s market within walking distance from our home. Every Saturday when we visit it, I often think that if society were to collapse, this type of venue would be the go-to solution for bartering and getting food. It’s the benefit of a small community, even if that community is the size of Monroe, North Carolina. Within small communities come stronger support networks because we live side-by-side with our neighbors. It’s not that larger cities can’t do this. In fact, they do so with a pool of greater resources.

It’s different in smaller communities where we literally see the same people on a consistent basis, even if we don’t personally know the person. Resource sharing is more personal, and communication may actually become more streamlined in a smaller community, circumventing the vast amounts of misinformation that you may find in larger cities.

At the end of the day, it’s about resources and if the infrastructure in our community collapses, then I would have no qualms about asking my family to stay home from their daily activities to help us retain our own infrastructure. This would include protecting their safety from those who seek to do harm in society. Looters, who may be in a state of starvation and looking for their next meal, will do what they feel they must to procure life essentials.

A school makes a lot of sense to ransack and would be the last place I want my child. People are people, and people do insane things in the name of survival of the fittest, especially when the opportunity presents itself if emergency services have failed.

On-Site

Not every community has standout people in it, but a strong community is able to forge solid enough alliances to overcome this adversity, at least during the initial stages of the disaster. A strong community will understand that their strength comes in numbers and that weaknesses should be strengthened to fortify the community. This means developing early warning systems, neighborhood watches, and establishing a system of leadership even if it only represents a few city blocks. Community cohesion isn’t as strong as it once was because we don’t necessarily know our neighbors like we used to.

I have a tall row of bushes separating our home from our neighbor’s, and we’ve waved to each other once in three years without a word spoken. We’re just not as cordial as we once were in our culture, and it has become a detriment to our vitality, especially in disaster scenarios. We don’t know our neighbors anymore, and that’s not necessarily a good thing.

Regardless, emergencies still bring people together. To protect my home from those who seek to take what I have, I need to help protect other’s homes from the same. Whether it’s looting, vandalism, arson, or intimidation, I believe that developing a community web is the best short-term solution to protect our families and homes. It represents a shift in our nation’s mindset that needs to be nurtured now, not just after worst-case scenarios unfold.

As I mentioned earlier, I believe that the “gray man” approach to disaster readiness is the best method of interaction within community even if it’s short lived. Maybe going gray goes out the window when the first shot is fired at those who are attempting to loot your home. For all intents and purposes, it’s a good approach if your neighbors become unstable because it affords you the ability to quietly distance yourself from them, saving you from a multitude of additional problems you never asked for.

Crisis

Part of survival is retaining flexibility in your situation. If, in this scenario, the temperature is dropping and my family and I are running out of food, then things may be grimmer than I had hoped. There would be enough circumstantial evidence to know that this is not a local problem, but indicative of a wider issue that would affect a larger region of American society.

While I know that we should not trust outside help to come to our aid, I would believe that if the situation were this dire, information would be made available through social media or the web, especially if a societal breakdown was in process. In that case, I might be more inclined to shelter in place, but if all communication systems were down, including the internet, it may just be the breaking point for me to think about moving my family out of our location and to a premise that’s better equipped.

Since Monroe is approximately 25 miles from Charlotte, it potentially hinders an efficient egress from those other panicked citizens leaving the city. If you haven’t already found back road systems to vacate your area, your best bet is to hopefully obtain a physical map and mark the less traveled roadways so you may find a quieter way out of the community.

Keep in mind that those aware of such roadways may have nefarious intentions. Pay attention to the actual areas that could be problematic as you leave town, including broken or blocked roadways if the incident is environmental in nature.

If the situation spiraled out of control, then it’s highly probable similar atrocities are widespread and therefore resemblant of civil conflicts often seen in other global arenas. America isn’t immune from suffering its own atrocities. Human beings will always resort to their base natures when pushed to do so.

New Orleans fell into social chaos during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and serves as the case study of what not to do in terms of human depravity mixed with poor governmental response. Why should all of America not suffer a similar fate as the Gulf region did in 2005?

We would like to think we would always resort to civility, but history tells us otherwise. I’d like to believe I could weather the collapse of our emergency response system at home. But with dwindling resources, dropping temperatures, and a restless community, my best option would be to pack up my family with enough supplies for at least three days, a few gallons of gas, and head to the safety of our family farm several states away.

A side note on gas

stock up on it ahead of time. Gas is gold in a bug-out situation, so hide and secure it at your home and in your vehicle after you bug-out. People have killed for less, and if they don’t feel like waiting in line for five hours to fill their tank, you might be their next target if they know you have it. If you need to fill up, do so secretly where no one is around to see you.

By this time, I would have examined our bug-out bags, restocked and equipped them for colder weather, and gotten enough food for our furry friends to make the two-day journey to safety.

Another side note

Your pets are your family and must always be included in your preparation plans. I have a special bug-out bag just for our two dogs equipped with food that has a decent shelf life, bowls, blankets, toys, and ground stakes with leashes, so I am not trying to collect everything in a moment’s notice.

Conclusion

A wide range of disasters could lead to such a scenario, but one stands out to me as the most plausible: an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The growing threat of a rogue nation detonating an EMP high above America is alarming. Unlike a nuclear explosion in a major city, an EMP wouldn’t be deadly on impact, but the aftermath — crippling our electronic infrastructure — would be far more devastating. Emergency services would be overwhelmed by rising crime, healthcare would falter, and basic necessities would vanish from grocery store shelves in a matter of days. Life, as we know it, would grind to a halt.

For those of us who prepare for emergencies, we understand that help might not arrive for several days, but we hold onto a sliver of hope. In the case of an EMP attack, however, hope could quickly fade, and the reality of being completely on our own is a daunting thought. That said, a “grid down” situation doesn’t necessarily mean the collapse of society.

Despite the fear and uncertainty, I still believe in the resilience of America. Our nation has weathered countless challenges in its short history, yet we remain united through it all. I like to think my family would show the same resilience that defines our country.

Would I bug-out in such a scenario? I hope it never comes to that. At the end of the day, home is where the heart is, and for now, I’m still a “bug-in” kind of guy … for now.